On January 12, 2026 local time, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that from now on, any country conducting business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in its trade with the United States. This decision, which is called "final and irreversible", quickly caused international market fluctuations.
This tariff policy is regarded as an escalation of the US's pressure on Iran. Recently, large-scale demonstrations broke out in Iran, and the US took the opportunity to intensify sanctions, attempting to economically isolate Iran. As an important trading partner of Iran, China was the first to be affected. Data shows that the trade volume between China and Iran reached 13.37 billion US dollars in 2024, and it remained at 7.49 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2025. The textile trade between the two countries is close, with China exporting textile machinery, chemical fiber raw materials, etc. to Iran, and importing high-quality long-staple cotton from Iran. The new tariff measures will impose additional cost pressure on related enterprises in their trade with the US.
The international crude oil market was the first to react. After the policy was announced, the futures prices of Brent and WTI crude oil both rose to near seven-week highs. The market is concerned that Iran's crude oil exports may be blocked, further increasing supply uncertainty. The rise in oil prices directly pushed up the costs of chemical fiber raw materials and logistics, and the textile industry is facing pressure of rising production costs.
Currently, the global energy market is facing combined geopolitical risks. Besides the situation in Iran, geopolitical factors such as those in Venezuela and Russia have also intensified the fluctuations in oil prices. A Goldman Sachs report indicates that geopolitical risks will continue to drive up market volatility. Textile enterprises need to address multiple challenges such as fluctuations in raw material costs, trade barriers, and exchange rate risks.
This chain reaction triggered by the tariff policy highlights the close connection between global trade and the energy market, and also foretells that in the context of the complex interweaving of geopolitics, multinational enterprises will face more severe challenges.
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