Beginning in December, driven by the official launch of the new crown vaccine, the polyester market began to rise continuously, driven by international oil prices. In half a month, polyester filament yarns have risen by nearly 600 yuan/ton, PTA and ethylene glycol have also risen to varying degrees, and the prices of grey fabrics and fabrics and dyeing fees have also risen to a certain extent.

Behind the stocking of raw materials in most weaving factories for more than 3 weeks:

The start-up gradually declines, and the grey fabric is tired again!

According to survey data, more than 50% of the downstream factories stock up for 20-25 days, 30% of the downstream factories stock up to about 1 month, and a few less than 10% downstream factories stock up to 1-2 weeks after the Spring Festival, and the downstream purchasing power remains unchanged Strong.

Behind the vigorous purchases of downstream weaving factories, it is the dilemma that the starting load of the loom has gradually declined and the grey cloth inventory has shown a trend of accumulation again. According to the survey data feedback, as of December 17, the comprehensive starting load of the loom in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 77.43%. , A drop of 10.32 percentage points from the beginning of December, of which the operating rate of water jet looms in Shengze area was 75.01%, a drop of 9.04 percentage points from the beginning of this month;

The start-up load of sprinklers in Changxing area was 77.86%, down 12.09% from the beginning of this month;

The operating rate of warp knitting in Haining was 87.95%, a slight decrease of 10.41 percentage points from the beginning of this month;

The load of warp knitting in Changshu area was around 86.60%, down 4.4% from the beginning of this month;

The operation rate of large circle machines in Xiaoshao area was 71.97%, down 4.03 percentage points from the beginning of this month;

At the same time, as of December 17, the number of days of comprehensive grey fabric inventory in Shengze was around 42 days, an increase of about 2 days from the beginning of the month.

Therefore, in turn, the price increase of polyester filament yarn is basically supported by unilateral costs, and terminal order demand has not shown signs of warming. The procurement of weaving and texturing plants is basically "speculative" except for a small amount of rigid demand.

It is true that downstream weaving factories have bought a lot on the premise that the overall loom load has declined and the terminal demand has not recovered, which directly leads to the saturation of raw material inventory in the weaving link. Most weaving factories currently stock raw materials for at least 3 weeks, and consider the later looms. The start-up continues to decline, and the current raw material inventory may maintain a longer cycle of production.

The emergence of new strains of the epidemic, the UK implements the highest level of lockdown restrictions

Polyester raw materials and foreign trade orders are very hanging

At the same time, the previous rise of polyester filament yarns is a callback under the expectation of a rebound in the future economic environment. The main driving force is the changes in the prices of upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other products.

This change is mainly due to the new crown vaccine. Although the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new crown virus in the world has exceeded 20 million, as the United Kingdom, Russia, the United States and other countries have begun to vaccinate, market confidence has gradually built up, and due to the global economic downturn , A lot of hot money in the market has nowhere to go, and they have begun to speculate on bulk commodities, causing polyester raw materials including PTA and ethylene glycol to rise sharply.

However, recently there have been repeated outbreaks abroad:

According to Overseas.com, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that the British capital London and parts of southeastern England and eastern England will implement the highest level of "Level 4" blockade restrictions from Sunday (20th) morning. According to the report, the stricter restrictions announced in the short term are in response to the severe situation of the rapid spread of the new coronavirus after mutation. The new variant of the virus is currently considered to be 70% more transmissible than the original strain. The British side stated that the new variant may have been transmitted to foreign countries, and the most urgent task at present is to ensure that the variant virus does not cause higher mortality.

Last week, Germany "closed the city" again, and this week the United Kingdom implemented the highest level of blockade restrictions, and brought a worse news: the virus has mutated, the infectivity may increase by 70%, and the new variant may have spread. Go abroad.

It is understood that before the closure of the city, some British people evacuated London. They swarmed out of the city, which is very likely to cause the virus to be imported into other areas. We do not know whether the previously developed vaccine is still effective against the mutated virus. The mutation of the new crown virus has caused market concerns. The blockade caused by the epidemic will directly lead to a decline in transportation oil, which will directly affect the demand for crude oil. Then the economy will drag down the demand for crude oil, which will once again have an impact on oil prices. Therefore, the crude oil and refined oil markets have suffered the most from the impact of the new crown epidemic on commodities.

The regional blockade caused by the mutation of the new coronavirus strain in the United Kingdom once again hurt the demand for crude oil. The current impact on consumption is still difficult to measure, but due to the previous experience of the negative factors of the blockade, the market immediately reacted to this. On the afternoon of December 22, the financial market plunged again across the board, with crude oil prices bearing the brunt. The same news is a big bad news for the textile market, and it may even cause the spring and summer orders on hand to be cancelled again.

All in all, weaving factories still focus on buying even when terminal demand fails to pick up, and there are still some hidden concerns for polyester factories with low inventories. At the same time, we still need to pay attention to the outbreak of overseas epidemics, especially in Europe. News of the closure of Germany and the United Kingdom has already appeared, which may be negative for polyester raw materials. At the same time, downstream textiles are likely to be cancelled again in the spring and summer of next year. , Enterprises need to do a good job of risk control!