The so-called feng shui turns, opportunities will change among various industries with the trend of the times. This year, the cotton spinning industry has shown a particularly obvious performance. From cotton farmers, gin factories to textile enterprises, all experience the joy and pain brought by this change.
Three years ago, the author went to Shandong for research. On the way, I met a cotton farmer who was spraying medicine in the cotton field. After explaining his intention, the cotton farmer asked casually: "Can cotton sell for a good price this year?". It is not easy for inland cotton farmers to plant cotton, not only the cotton subsidy standard is low, but also the cotton farmers are mainly the elderly, and there are no young people at all. Facing this old cotton farmer, I responded: "There will be no good prices in these two years." It seems that cotton farmers are used to such market conditions, and they are not concerned with more or less profit. The purpose of hard work is only Let your plot not be idle. Since last year, the wind direction has changed drastically, which most people did not expect. Cotton farmers have finally turned around, and the profit of cotton planting has been significantly higher than that of the same period, and their efforts have finally paid off.
In comparison, ginning companies are not so lucky. Of course, this is relative. In 2020, cotton processing companies will make a lot of money. When encountering such profit opportunities, it is not how good the company's operation is, but the The market presents a good opportunity. In 2021, when they wanted to continue the good times of 2020, ginning companies bought at a high price. The cost of lint was higher than the futures price. There was no suitable hedging opportunity, sales encountered difficulties, and the risk of the future market was also increasing. Flower companies are also looking forward to getting out of this year, even if they lose a little bit.
In fact, I think the most difficult thing is probably the textile enterprises. Regardless of the scale of capital or the operating cost of the factory, the textile enterprises are far larger than the ginning enterprises. Since 2020, the production profits of textile enterprises have continued to rise. It seems that God has helped them. The profits once reached more than 4,000 yuan / ton. Looking at history, such high profits have rarely appeared. Textile enterprises are attracted by the current prosperity and expand their scale. , increase production, as if returning to the old road, just like the continuous increase in futures profits and positions, it will be very uncomfortable to encounter a retracement.
At this stage, textile enterprises are currently facing three main problems. First, the cost of daily wages, electricity bills and other expenses is not a small expense. Even if there is a loss, the basic production must be guaranteed. Otherwise, it will be difficult to restart once the production is stopped; second It is now at a loss when buying cotton and spinning cotton yarn. From the original high profit to the current loss, the psychological gap is very large. Faced with continuous losses, the pressure on the enterprise can be imagined; the third is that the cotton price is already at a high level. , in the long run, the probability of continuing to fall is greater than the probability of rising. Those who understand textile companies know that companies most hope that cotton prices will rise steadily, and big rises and falls are detrimental to the company, especially the big fall, which has the greatest impact on the company. It is unrealistic for cotton prices to remain high for a long time, because there will be a downward trend in the future, and textile enterprises must be prepared and planned for a protracted war.
At present, the economic situation at home and abroad is still severe and complicated. Under such circumstances, survival is the first priority. Don't think about how much money you can make, it is more important to plan how to live better in the slump. After talking so much, good times and bad days always go hand in hand, often inadvertently changing. Maybe the company can enjoy as much glory as it has to endure the pain.
