Since 2022, affected by a new round of epidemics, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and other factors, the problem of global supply and demand imbalance has intensified. The violent fluctuations in commodity prices have triggered higher-than-expected inflation and continued financial market turmoil. Risk factors on both sides of supply and demand continue to accumulate. A drag on global economic and trade growth prospects. In April, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 52.2. Although it was in the expansion range, the output index fell for the first time in 22 months due to factors such as shrinking global export orders and increasing downward pressure on China's economy. ; The OECD Consumer Confidence Index was 97.3, in contraction territory for nine consecutive months. The rebound of the epidemic and supply chain shocks have suppressed the recovery momentum of global merchandise trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) global merchandise trade barometer index in the first quarter was only 98.7, continuing the below-trend contraction since the fourth quarter of 2021. International commodity prices have risen rapidly since March, the risk of stagflation in the global economy has increased, and the inflation rate of major economies such as the United States and the European Union has hit a 40-year high.
The textile industry has entered a low-speed growth zone, and the growth rates of major economic indicators other than investment have generally dropped compared with the same period of the previous year. In the context of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and the continued spread of the epidemic, consumer demand for textile and apparel products is relatively sluggish, and the order situation in the traditional peak season of "gold three silver four" is weaker than the same period in previous years and expectations. Under the static management measures of the epidemic, the procurement of raw materials, the delivery of finished products and normal production have been affected to a certain extent, resulting in loss of export orders and refunds of domestic orders. Faced with the staged dilemma of "high cost, weak demand, and high inventory", the operating rates of major industrial chain links such as chemical fiber, spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing have all decreased, and the profit pressure is relatively significant, and the company's perception is weaker than the current data. It shows that there is obvious differentiation among enterprises, between industry chains and between sales channels, and some small and micro enterprises tend to have tight cash flow. China Textile Federation, some professional associations, and Jiangsu Garment Association carried out key investigations in a timely manner. According to the information obtained from the investigation, the current key industrial clusters and enterprises in the epidemic-related areas have basically resumed normal production. The textile and apparel professional market has resumed business and market one after another, and most areas have smooth logistics, but the high transportation cost has further increased the pressure on enterprises' operation, and the pressure on the terminal links of the industrial chain has become more prominent.
In the second half of the year, the complicated domestic and international situation increased the development pressure of the textile industry, and enterprises generally lowered their development expectations. The bleak economic prospects, the epidemic that has not been effectively controlled, and the ongoing geopolitical crisis will all reduce the actual purchasing power and consumption willingness of residents. The growth of domestic and foreign sales in the textile industry faces many constraints. Resolve high pressure on raw materials, transportation and labor costs. Textile enterprises need to actively take advantage of a series of relief measures and loose monetary policies in China, continue to promote the transformation and upgrading of products, equipment and processes, tap consumption hot spots, and smoothly pass the period of superimposed supply and demand pressure.
