Recently, domestic cotton prices have declined steadily, international cotton prices have risen, cotton yarn prices at home and abroad continue to rise, and polyester staple fiber prices have changed from rising to falling.
Last week, the textile market trading atmosphere continued off-season, some varieties of goods have improved, textile enterprises to purchase raw materials positive performance, reserve cotton continued to all transactions, the average price of transactions showed a downward trend, domestic cotton prices fell slightly. From August 7 to 11, the average settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 17,223 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan/ton from the previous week, down 0.6%; The average price of the national cotton Price B index, which represents the market price of standard grade lint in the mainland, is 18,017 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous week, or 0.01%.
The weather problems in the United States cotton region continue to disturb, the latest announcement of the United States cotton export data improve, before the release of the monthly forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture, the international cotton prices as a whole show a volatile upward trend. From August 7 to 11, the average settlement price of the main contract of cotton futures in New York was 85.51 cents/pound, up 0.61 cents/pound from the previous week, or 0.7%; The average price of the international Cotton Index (M), which represents the average price of imported cotton landed in China's main port, was 96.74 cents/pound, down 0.43 cents/pound, or 0.4%, from the previous week. Discounted import cost of RMB 16,784 yuan/ton (based on 1% tariff, excluding Hong Kong miscellaneous and freight), down 89 yuan/ton from the previous week, down 0.5%. The domestic cotton price is 1233 yuan/ton higher than the international cotton price, and the price difference is 98 yuan/ton larger than the previous week.
Textile market orders have not seen a significant improvement, some enterprises to raise prices to make up for losses, domestic cotton yarn prices continued to rise slightly. The market turnover of yarn continued to be weak, and the price rose slightly with raw materials. Domestic grey cloth market sales are still weak, cotton prices from rising to stable. Polyester staple fiber prices fell.
The short-term USDA report will affect the trend of international cotton prices. S&p Global forecasts a slowdown in manufacturing across ASEAN in the second half of 2023, with business confidence losing and perceptions of the outlook falling to a three-year low. In the cotton market, the US cotton excellent rate has stopped falling, the dry weather is still continuing, and the market expects the US Department of Agriculture to forecast a lower US cotton production in August. As of August 6, 41% of the United States cotton growth condition reached good or above, which was unchanged from the previous week and 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In the textile market, in the context of weak global trade and weak terminal demand in the United States and Europe, exports of major textile producing countries in Southeast Asia have generally shrunk, a large number of factories in Cambodia have stopped production and workers have been laid off, Pakistani textile enterprises have generally reduced production capacity, and India's textile and garment exports have declined sharply. In the short term, the weather disturbance is still continuing, and the market has no expectations for the recovery of the overseas textile consumption market, and is generally waiting for the latest guidance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report.
Strong expectations, weak reality, cotton prices limited. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the policy effect in the second half of the year continued to appear, a series of decision-making and deployment to accelerate the landing effect, expand domestic demand, strong entity, risk prevention and other policies continued to launch, stock measures and incremental policies to work together to promote high-quality development further enhanced the joint force, the second half of China's economy will continue to recover in the first half of the year on the basis of maintaining a stable and good trend. In the cotton market, the high temperature weather in Xinjiang continues, and the cotton flowers and bells in some areas have fallen off, which has little impact on the overall output at present. With the downstream enterprises have started the raw material replenishment plan, the reserve cotton round is hot, and the Xinjiang cotton inquiry in the spot market has also picked up. In the short term, the expected reduction of new flowers is still the main driving force for the bullish market, but the reality of increasing market supply and slow recovery of textile consumption will make cotton price rise highly limited.
