Recently, the phased easing of China-US tariff policies has injected a shot in the arm to the global container shipping market, pushing freight rates to start a new round of rising cycles. Since the Trump administration announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on some Chinese export goods in mid-May, the market has responded quickly, and the "export rush" mode has been fully launched, with the trans-Pacific route becoming the core driving force of this round of market conditions.
This round of freight rate increases showed obvious "chain reaction" characteristics. Attracted by the high profits of the trans-Pacific route, shipping companies quickly deployed capacity and transferred some ships to the US route. This structural capacity adjustment led to periodic capacity shortages on other routes such as Asia-Europe, the Middle East, and South America, which in turn promoted the coordinated increase in freight rates.
Many industry research institutions predict that this round of freight rate increases will reach a peak around mid-June. Xeneta analysis pointed out that as the concentrated shipping tide subsides, inventory replenishment is completed, and the supply of space is gradually restored, the market supply and demand tension will be alleviated, and the enthusiasm of cargo owners to grab space will also cool down.
However, there are still many uncertainties in the market outlook. As the 90-day tariff exemption period draws to a close, the direction of the US's subsequent tariff policy is full of variables. Whether the "301 investigation" will implement port surcharges and other issues have also attracted great attention from the market. In addition, the weak economic data recently released by European and American economies has further exacerbated the downside risks of the market. Once policy expectations weaken, freight rates may face rapid correction pressure.
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